USMacro
State of the Economy

Where the U.S. economy stands — and what’s building underneath.

USMacro reads the U.S. economy by fixed rules on 115 public indicators — counts of what followed, no forecasts of the site’s own. New here? How to read this site →

Today's reading

The read

Regime Expansion since Oct 2025
Momentum healthy · 64 / 100 How is the economy doing right now?
Forward Stress neutral · 56 / 100 What’s building that could break?
Inflation Regime strained · 30 / 100 How much room does the Fed have?
Economic breadth +46% 12 improving · 1 deteriorating · broad improvement

Underneath

  • Capitulation Monitor 1 of 6 firing 1 of 6 gauges firing; washout at 4
  • Housing Downturn spreading leading → coincident ↓ lagging ↑ · since Aug 2026

What changed

Each gauge is 0–100, the weighted mean of its inputs' ranks within trailing 10- or 20-year windows (50: the inputs at their window medians), the record since 1981. The regime and the three gauges use today's data; Economic Breadth and Housing use the revised monthly record.

43 indicators feed the site's composites · 23 of them feed the three gauges · the record since 1981 · fixed rules, written down · every figure traced to its source · revisions kept

Where the stress sits · every indicator, by category

Each cell is one indicator, colored against its own historical thresholds.

Technical3
healthy
neutral
neutral
Macro Risk8
strong
healthy
healthy
healthy
healthy
neutral
stress
stress
Monetary & Liquidity3
healthy
neutral
neutral
Credit & Financial Conditions14
strong
strong
strong
strong
strong
strong
strong
strong
healthy
healthy
healthy
healthy
neutral
neutral
Fundamental10
strong
healthy
healthy
stress
stress
stress
stress
severe
severe
severe
Economic30
strong
strong
strong
strong
strong
strong
strong
strong
healthy
healthy
healthy
healthy
healthy
healthy
healthy
healthy
healthy
neutral
neutral
neutral
neutral
neutral
neutral
neutral
neutral
neutral
stress
stress
stress
severe
Sentiment3
strong
healthy
severe
Employment18
strong
strong
strong
strong
healthy
healthy
healthy
healthy
healthy
healthy
healthy
healthy
healthy
healthy
neutral
neutral
neutral
neutral
Housing20
strong
strong
healthy
healthy
healthy
neutral
neutral
neutral
neutral
neutral
neutral
neutral
stress
stress
stress
stress
stress
stress
severe
severe
Consumer6
healthy
neutral
neutral
neutral
neutral
stress
Healthy Stress
The Suite

12 tools, grouped by the question they answer.

Some map the state of the economy; others read the market. They are not the same question, and the site keeps them apart.

Where are we?

State of the Economy is the economy growing, and is anything about to break?
Economic Breadth how much of the economy is moving the same way?
Corporate Profit Share are profits running above what they usually can?

What's building underneath?

Housing Cycle is housing turning, and which way?

What is the market doing?

Valuations how expensive is the market against its own history?
Capitulation Monitor is the selling done?
The yield curve what has followed an inverted yield curve?

Has this happened before?

Regimes what happened the last time the economy looked like this?
Confluence which past months most resemble today?

How do we know?

Indicator Heatmap every indicator, colored by its threshold ladder
Indicator Deep Dives the full story of any one indicator
Revisions Ledger how far do first prints miss?